Expert Adjustments of Model Forecasts

Theory, Practice and Strategies for Improvement

By:

Philip Hans Franses

Format:

Hardback

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Description

To what extent should anybody who has to make model forecasts generated from detailed data analysis adjust their forecasts based on their own intuition? In this book, Philip Hans Franses, one of Europe's leading econometricians, presents the notion that many publicly available forecasts have experienced an 'expert's touch', and questions whether this type of intervention is useful and if a lighter adjustment would be more beneficial. Covering an extensive research area, this accessible book brings together current theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert adjustment from an econometric perspective. The author's analysis is based on a range of real forecasts and the datasets upon which the forecasters relied. The various motivations behind experts' modifications are considered, and guidelines for creating more useful and reliable adjusted forecasts are suggested. This book will appeal to academics and practitioners with an interest in forecasting methodology.

Author Biography:

Philip Hans Franses is Professor of Applied Econometrics and Professor of Marketing Research at the Erasmus University Rotterdam. Since 2006 he has served as the Dean of the Erasmus School of Economics. His research interests concern the development and application of econometric methods for problems in marketing, finance and macroeconomics.

Release date NZ

October 9th, 2014

Author

Philip Hans Franses

Audience

Professional & Vocational

Illustrations

18 Tables, black and white; 9 Line drawings, unspecified

Pages

144

Dimensions

10x229x152

ISBN-13

9781107081598

Product ID

22296449

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