This book, as others in the MDS series, is geared towards making the modeling of disease attractive to students and those with emerging interests in the subject. It is the intention of the authors that these students be able to go on to model local outbreaks and understand the power of contagion in the modern, global, highly interactive world. It is not meant as an exhaustive, high-level text in disease ecology or epidemiology. The book will likely be a small seminar course text or a supplementary text in infectious disease, population biology, pest and disease management, or biological modeling courses. Courses are taught in departments of public health, epidemiology, environmental sciences, and biology. Typical class size: 20 students. A CD-Rom with STELLA and models will be included with the book. I have discussed a new arrangementa "WITH NO ROYALTIESa "with isee systems, the software owner. This contract will be contingent upon a final agreement with isee systems to include a save-disabled version of STELLA with the book.

Table of Contents

Part I: Introduction1. The Why and How of Dynamic Modeling1.1. Introduction1.2. Static, Comparative-Static and Dynamic Models1.3. Model Complexity and Explanatory Power1.4. Model Components1.5. Modeling in STELLA1.6. Analogy and Creativity1.7. STELLA's Numeric Solution Techniques1.8. Sources of Model Errors1.9. The Detailed Modeling Process1.10. Questions and Tasks2. Basic Epidemic Models2.1. Basic Model2.2. Epidemic Model with Randomness2.3. Loss of Immunity2.4. Two Population Epidemic Model2.5. Epidemic with Vaccination2.6. Questions and Tasks3. Insect Dynamics3.1. Matching Experiments and Models of Insect Life Cycles3.2. Optimal Insect Switching3.3. Two-Age Class Parasite Model3.4. Questions and TasksPart II: Applications4. Malaria and Sickle Cell Anemia4.1. Malaria4.1.1. Basic Malaria Model4.1.2. Questions and Tasks4.2. Sickle Cell Anemia and Malaria in Balance4.2.1. Sickle Cell Anemia4.2.2. Questions and Tasks5. Encephalitis5.1. St. Louis Encephalitis5.2. Questions and Tasks6. Chagas Disease6.1. Chagas Disease Spread and Control Strategies6.2. Questions and Tasks7. Lyme Disease7.1. Lyme Disease Model7.2. Questions and Tasks8. Chicken Pox and Shingles8.1. Model Assumptions and Structure8.2. Questions and Tasks9. Toxoplasmosis9.1. Introduction9.2. Model Construction9.3. Results9.4. Questions and Tasks10. The Zebra Mussel10.1. Introduction10.2 Model Development10.3 Model Results10.4 Questions and Tasks11. Biological Control of Pestilence11.1. Herbivory and Algae11.1.1. Herbivore-Algae Predator-Prey Model11.1.2. Questions and Tasks11.2. Bluegill Population Management11.2.1. Bluegill Dynamics11.2.2. Impacts of Fishing11.2.3. Impacts of Disease11.2.4. Questions and Tasks11.3. Woolly Adelgid11.3.1. Infestation of Fraser Fir11.3.2. Adelgid and Fir Dynamics11.3.3. Questions and Tasks12. Indirect SIR Models of Arboviral Encephalitis Transmission12.1. Emily Wheeler and Traci Barkley12.2. Susceptible-Infected-Resistant (SIR) Models in Dynamic Populations12.2.1. Model Structure and Behavior12.2.2. Questions and Tasks12.3. Base WNV SIR Model with a Dynamic Vector Population12.3.1. Base Model Structure and Behavior12.3.2. Questions and Tasks12.4. Avian Population Effects and Seasonal Dynamics12.4.1. Modifications to the Base Model12.4.2. Avian Demography and Disease Persistence12.4.3. Weather as an Extrinsic Driver of Outbreak Severity12.4.4. Questions and Tasks13. Chaos and Pestilence13.1. Basic Disease Model with Chaos13.1.1. Model Setup13.1.2. Detecting and Interpreting Chaos13.1.3. Questions and Tasks13.2. Chaos with Nicholson-Bailey Equations13.2.1. Host-Parasitoid Interactions13.2.2. Questions and Tasks14. Catastrophe and Pestilence14.1. Basic Catastrophe Model14.2. Spruce Budworm Catastrophe14.3. Questions and Tasks15. Spatial Dynamics of Pestilence15.1. Diseased and Healthy Migrating Insects15.1.1. Questions and Tasks15.2. The Spatial Dynamic Spread of Rabies in Foxes15.2.1. Introduction15.2.2. Fox Rabies in Illinois15.2.3. Previous Fox Rabies Models15.2.4. The Rabies Virus15.2.5. Fox Biology15.2.6. Model Design15.2.7. Cellular Model15.2.8. Model Assumptions15.2.9. Georeferencing the Modeling Process15.2.10. Spatial Characteristics15.2.11. Model Constraints15.2.12. Model Results15.2.13. Rabies Pressure15.2.14. The Effects of Disease Alone15.2.15. Hunting Pressure15.2.16. Controlling the DiseasePart III: Conclusions16. Conclusions